Mayor Brandon Johnson has highlighted Chicago’s murder clearance rate as evidence of progress in fighting crime, citing a 71 percent rate for last year. However, data shows that only about one-fourth of murders led to arrests, and arrest rates for non-lethal shootings and other serious crimes remain just above 10 percent.
Clearance rates are calculated by including all homicide cases closed in a given year—regardless of when the crime occurred—and dividing that by the number of murders committed in that year. When the total number of murders falls, this metric can improve even if actual arrests do not increase. Additionally, an increasing number of cases are classified as “cleared” without any arrest being made.
Cases may be cleared through arrest or by “exceptional means,” such as when a suspect dies, a victim declines to cooperate, or prosecutors refuse charges. Under Mayor Rahm Emanuel, these non-arrest clearances rose from about 40 annually to more than 100 in recent years and now account for over half of all closed homicide cases.
The trend continued under former Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx, whose office often declined to file charges. These cases were then closed by exceptional means. Foxx defended her approach as raising prosecutorial standards: “We cannot allow our desire for convictions to override our responsibility to seek justice.” Critics argued this policy made prosecution nearly impossible.
Mayor Johnson attributes higher clearance rates to improved collaboration between police and community violence intervention programs and the promotion of 50 detectives in 2025. However, broader trends appear responsible for reduced violence: the end of COVID restrictions, schools reopening, tougher policing measures, and more assertive prosecution practices nationwide have contributed to falling crime across major U.S. cities.
Chicago’s decline in violent crime accelerated after Judge Eileen O’Neill Burke was elected Cook County State’s Attorney in 2024 and reversed Foxx’s policies on prosecution. While Chicago’s current homicide rate is similar to levels seen during Mayor Richard M. Daley’s tenure—not at historic lows as claimed—the city still leads the nation in total murders and shootings.
A survey required by the CPD consent decree found only 33 percent of residents believe Chicago Police are doing a good or very good job protecting the city; just 27 percent trust reforms will have lasting impact.
Recommendations include rebuilding CPD’s Detective Bureau—currently only 8.4 percent of officers are assigned detective work compared with higher proportions in New York City and Los Angeles—restoring beat integrity lost due to staffing cuts (with overtime spending rising since losing 1,700 officers), strengthening transit security (Chicago assigns far fewer full-time officers than New York), amending state law so those who threaten or attack police or witnesses face immediate bail revocation and pretrial detention, and enacting a local public safety ordinance allowing stricter penalties for violent offenses against first responders or victims.
“The clearance rate is a smokescreen — used by mayors to claim progress while hiding the truth that most crimes go unpunished,” according to the release. “Justice requires more than bookkeeping. It requires swift police response, robust investigation, and the protection of victims and witnesses.”
The statement concludes: “If Chicago truly wants to move beyond the violence of the Daley era, it must replace illusion with accountability and restore public confidence by delivering real consequences for violent crime.”
