Chicago City Wire

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic could ultimately cost the state of Illinois as much as $28 billion in revenues over the next four years, according to a University of Illinois System report assessing the impact the crisis stands to have on the state budget.

Researchers based their numbers on a $1.9 billion reduction in state revenues expected for this year and by plugging in numbers for the current recession based on what they proved to be during the Great Recession of 2008-09. The worst-case scenario projects a $6.4 billion hit.

If things turn out like they did back then, the four-year hit to the state’s finances could swell to $13 billion and top out as high as in the neighborhood of $28 billion.

With business activity everywhere in the state on the decline largely stemming from a stay-at-home order imposed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker, revenues from corporate income taxes, individual income taxes and sales taxes are all likewise expected to take a big hit at a time when demand for state resources are at an all-time high.

"The COVID-19 emergency is likely to be quite different from past recessions because we expect a substantial number of households with precarious economic circumstances to be pushed onto Medicaid as they become infected with coronavirus,” the report stated. “This will be likely to compound the usual recession-induced influx of Medicaid-eligible households, greatly amplifying the need for Medicaid expenditures.”

Thus far, Illinois has cashed in on $4.9 billion in stimulus provided by the federal government with a little more than half of it pegged for the state.