Chicago City Wire

For all the actions taken by the government in the fight against COVID-19, many experts believe the power in terms of a return to economic normalcy lies in the hands of the consumer.

"How long does it take for consumer behavior to go back to normal?” Wintrust Financial chief credit officer Richard Murphy said in a recent conference call with analysts.

With consumer spending accounting for roughly 70 percent of the gross domestic product, Crain’s Chicago Business concludes that how residents bounce back from restrictions like the stay-at-home order Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker enacted back in March will be critical to where the economy goes in the future.

“It's anyone's guess how many businesses will go bust and how many consumers will go bankrupt before the U.S. economy recovers from the sharpest economic contraction in its history,” Crain’s added, pointing out that all the uncertainty particularly spells troubles for banks and other financial institutions.

In April, Riverwoods-based Discover Financial Services, one of the country's largest credit card companies, reported sales volume on its cards fell 29 percent through the middle of the month of April compared to the same time in 2019. Over that same period, the only category where spending had increased was in the area of groceries, while retail and services was down by an average of 26%.

"What we all need is for the economy to open back up again," Discover CEO Roger Hochschild said.

Anything short of that and bankers are already forecasting that the hit to the economy could be even more severe and make the prospect of arriving at a "new normal" all the more uncertain.