Chicago City Wire

Arrests in Chicago have plummeted 81 percent over the past two decades, a Sun-Times analysis shows, and with the election of progressive Brandon Johnson for mayor, who early on supported defunding the police but later backed off, arrests are likely to continue going one way and crime the other, say criminal justice experts.

Joseph Giacalone, an Adjunct in the Law, Police Science and Criminal Justice Administration Department at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said as long as police are viewed as the problem and not the solution, crime will continue to rise.

“Besides responding to 911 calls, the days of proactive policing are over,” Giacalone told Chicago City Wire in an email. “The DAs (district attorneys) and lawmakers are more interested in locking cops up for doing their jobs than criminals. The risk is no longer worth it - the deck is stacked against the police.”

CTU organizer and mayoral candidate Brandon Johnson | Wirepoints

Worsening the problem, more Chicago police are leaving than getting hired. Since 2019, approximately 3,300 officers “retired, resigned, were fired – or lost their lives while wearing the badge –“ according to an October 2022 CBS 2 report. Over the same time, the Department hired about half that number of officers.

The CBS report cited burnout from overwork and lack of support from city officials as one of the top reasons for leaving.

The CPD is unlikely to find that support from the new mayor. During the campaign, Johnson, a former public school teacher and union organizer, said that he believes in fighting crime by, among other things, launching a “comprehensive efficiency audit” to identify savings that start with streamlining the number of “non-sergeant” police supervisors, getting rid of what he calls the “racist” gang database and ending a contract with ShotSpotter, a proven technology that detects guns shots and immediately alerts police and other first responders to the location where the shots were fired. A class action lawsuit filed last year by the MacArthur Justice Center alleges that the use of ShotSpotter is racist.

“The lawmakers of Chicago (and elsewhere) have created an environment of ignorance and apathy: who knows and who cares,” Giacalone said. “But I can say to the activists: be careful what you wish for, you just might get it. When laws are passed that cops can’t conduct a foot chase or conduct vehicle stops, this is what happens.”