Chicago City Wire

It would be naïve to think that a progressive Chicago mayor could actually reduce the city’s crime numbers during his first 100 days in office, but Brandon Johnson did have a real opportunity to flip the trajectory. Chicago’s crime had already hit its post-George Floyd, post-covid highs in 2022 (see appendix) and Mayor Lori Lightfoot had made a major mess of policing and criminal justice. Johnson had a perfect chance to lead, and maybe even bring the crime numbers down.

Unfortunately, Johnson has refused to even try to tamp down on crime during his first 100 days. If anything, he’s doubled down on the city’s long-running soft-on-crime approach. He continues to reject calling out the city’s violence for what it is, downplaying mob actions and resorting to semantics. And he keeps talking and talking about ‘root causes,’ but refuses to stop what’s happening nightly on the city’s streets. 

His failure to act means the bloodshed continues. New Chicago Police CompStat numbers show during Johnson’s first 100 days a total of 204 murders – far more than the mayor’s two immediate predecessors. And in all, major crimes during Johnson’s first 100 days are up 25 percent compared to the same time period last year.

The events of last weekend capture the essence of the city’s terrible violence, with 40 shot and seven murdered, including four teens (credit to ABC7 for the details):

• A 14-year-old boy was fatally shot in his head and chest on Chicago’s South Side, police said. The shooting happened in the 8700-block of South Cregier Avenue at about 6:51 p.m. 
• A 16-year-old boy has died after he was shot Friday at around 7:49 p.m. in the 4400-block of S. Lavergne on the city’s Southwest Side. CPD said the teen was struck multiple times to the body by gunfire.
• A 17-year-old girl was shot to death at a West Side Park on Saturday afternoon. Chicago police said she, along with a 16-year-old boy, were shot while a block party was going on nearby. The shooting happened in the North Austin neighborhood’s 5700-block of West Bloomingdale Avenue at about 4:10 p.m.
• An 18-year-old passenger of a car was shot and killed Friday night in the West Garfield Park neighborhood on the West Side. The youth was inside a car just before 10 p.m. in the 4300-block of West Maypole Avenue when someone fired shots, striking him in the head, cheek and abdomen, Chicago police said.

In all, the total number of teens aged 18 and under killed since Johnson took office has grown to 33.

The 204 homicide total during Johnson’s first 100 days is 25 percent higher than it was under Lori Lightfoot’s first 100 days and 33 percent higher compared to Rahm Emanuel’s back in 2011.

And while it’s true that Chicago has experienced a decline in homicides – murders in 2023 are down 7 percent compared to the same period last year – the other big cities with the nation’s most homicides are seeing far bigger declines in murders YTD. Los Angeles homicides are down 24 percent this year, while Philly’s and Houston’s are down 21 and 23 percent respectively. New York is down 11 percent.

And major crimes overall this year are still up 34 percent – on top of last year’s own 33 percent increase.

Slower growth in crime?

One claim Johnson might make is that he’s presiding over a decline in the growth of the crime rate since he took over. Major crimes are up 25 percent since May 15th (versus the same period in 2022), slower than the 42 percent increase that occurred during the nearly five months of 2023 when Lightfoot was still in charge. 

But the “reduction” in crime growth can be attributed largely to the relatively stable number of motor vehicle thefts Chicago is experiencing in 2023 as compared to 2022, when an explosion in motor vehicle thefts began in June and peaked four months later. 

The city’s crime rate has grown more slowly the last two months simply because Chicago isn’t experiencing the same massive growth in car thefts it had last year. 

Note, though, that the actual number of car thefts in 2023 are running much, much higher than 2022 so far. Already, Chicago has experienced 17,000 car thefts in 2023 compared to “just” 8,000 in the same period last year. We just covered those numbers in detail in: Spree of robberies, car thefts drive Chicago crime to new highs.

Root causes, real solutions

A key point we have to make when discussing crime: Yes, root causes matter. Tremendously. 

The lack of two-parent households matters. So does a lack of reading, writing and math skills. As does the city’s neighborhoods struggling with few jobs and fewer opportunities. All that has to be fixed.

But reaching agreement on the causes and solutions of crime – even among allies – can take years or decades. 

In the meantime, Chicagoans are suffering the consequences of a post-pandemic-high crime wave: more violence, more stolen and destroyed property, and more deaths.

The short-term solution remains the same for Chicago: deterrence. As we’ve written time and again, that means a dramatic increase in policing, arrests, prosecutions and sentencing.

Without such changes, Brandon Johnson’s next 100 days will continue to be bloody.

A final point. The mayor has a unique position to speak directly to offenders and their parents and get them to listen. But so far he has squandered that, making no attempt to say that criminal conduct is deeply wrong. 

Appendix.