Chicago City Wire

There’s not enough data yet to make any claims about the impact of Illinois’ elimination of cash bail, part of the SAFE-T Act implemented just two months ago. But we do know two facts that spell trouble for the city in 2024:

1. Total 2023 major crimes in Chicago will end up about 60% over 2019, a post-covid record, and; 
2. Cook County’s jail population is at its lowest level in more than 40 years.

Despite that, where Chicago crime heads next year is still tough to guess. Has Chicago’s “crime wave” hit a peak and begun to flatten or trend down, as murders appear to be doing? Or will Chicago’s decarcerationist trend – supported by the end of cash bail and Mayor Johnson’s soft-on-crime policies – embolden criminals to do more?

Below we share the facts and what might impact the city’s 2024 crime totals.

1. Chicagoans will be victims of nearly 80,000 major crimes in 2023. That’s about 29,000 more crimes than in 2019 – an increase of nearly 60 percent. And it’s an 18 percent increase over last year.

2. Robberies, car thefts are driving 2023’s record crimes. Motor vehicle thefts still account for a vast majority of the increase in crimes over last year, with Chicagoans losing more than 25,000 cars to theft so far. That’s 56 percent more YTD than in 2022.

Robberies are next, up 25 percent compared to last year. Theft is still up 5 percent and aggravated battery is up 4 percent. Only homicides have seen a decrease, down 11 percent compared to 2022. (More on homicides below.)

3. Recent monthly crime totals have plateaued near 2022’s maximums. Chicago’s 2023 monthly crime totals were running far higher versus 2022 for most of the year. That changed in the second half of the year, with total crimes now averaging about 7,000 per month for both 2022 and 2023.

A big driver of that change is motor vehicle thefts. The number of car thefts in 2022 skyrocketed between June and October, nearly tripling over just four months. Chicago hasn’t experienced, so far, a similar jump in the second half of 2023.

4. Robberies continue to soar past their 2019, 2022 levels. Chicago’s criminals began a robbery-spree in June of this year that shows no sign of ending. Robberies have jumped more than 50 percent between June and October, with over 1,200 now happening every month.

5. Chicago’s homicides are down in 2023, but they are down in other big cities, too. Homicide is the only major crime to significantly decline this year. Through the end of October, murders are down 12 percent compared to 2022.

Unfortunately, other major cities have seen murders drop more than that. Los Angeles homicides are down 19 percent so far this year. Philadelphia’s are down 20%. Houston’s are down 22 percent. Only New York is down a similar 11 percent.

6. Cook County’s jail population has been cut in half over the last decade. 2013 marked a near-peak in the number of inmates in Cook County jails. Since then, the number of inmates has collapsed by more than half, reaching just 4,800 on 11/13/23. That’s the lowest number of people in jail in 40 years (excluding covid-impacted 2020). That drop reflects the ongoing push for decarceration and a reduction in efforts to deter crime. Included in that movement is Chief Judge Tim Evan’s 2017 low-bail reforms and, of course, the SAFE-T Act.

Since no-cash-bail went into effect on September 17th, the jail population has fallen 10 percent, to 4,817 from 5,419.

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Anyway you cut it, the outlook’s not good for 2024. Mayor Johnson has so far only excused crime. The ongoing trend for emptier jails will continue as no-cash bail takes full hold. And knowing how Chicago voted for mayor earlier this year, Kim Foxx’s replacement as Cook County State’s Attorney could be even more radical.

Place your bets.