Chicago City Wire

Violent crime is declining in Chicago, but Mayor Brandon Johnson is unlikely to receive credit for the trend, according to a recent analysis by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner of Wirepoints, who argue that his policies—particularly those perceived as anti-police—may contribute to increased crime.

“The problem for Mayor Johnson is that it’s hard for people to give him any credit when his policies – and those of former Mayor Lori Lightfoot – may have actually held back Chicago’s decline in crime,” write Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner.

“Both leaders demoralized the police force. They blocked officers from performing the basic acts of car and foot chases. They consistently promoted decarcerationist and decriminalization policies. Johnson removed ShotSpotter (gunshot detection technology). And he’s been an apologist for Teen Takeovers (Kids being silly). It’s easy to see why Chicagoans might think crime in Chicago hasn’t fallen.”

One possible reason for the recent drop in violent crime is the end of eight years of more lenient criminal justice policies under former Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx. Under new State’s Attorney Eileen O’Neill-Burke, increased use of pre-trial detention has contributed to a rise in the Cook County Jail population, which has grown to nearly 5,800—up from around 5,200 at the end of Foxx’s term, according to Wirepoints. 

In a recent interview on “Chicago Tonight,” O'Neill-Burke noted there have been issues with the county’s electronic monitoring system.

She said that 40 to 50 people that are charged with murder or attempted murder are on electronic monitoring.

“Those are not appropriate charges for electronic monitoring,” Burke said. “My job is to make sure that people who are a danger to the public, we do everything we can to detain them. If someone is not a danger to the public, we are not asking for detention. If someone is carrying a machine gun or a gun with a switch converting it into an automatic weapon, they present a danger to the public and in those cases we seek detention.”

Burke said her office is also seeking detention for people who commit other kinds of violent crime, including on Chicago Transit Authority buses and trains.

Despite the drop in violent crime Chicago still lags other major urban areas, Wirepoints notes.

By the end of 2024, the city finally had a year-on-year drop in violent crime. 2024 violent crime was down 7% off of the 2023 highs.

Chicago murders also continued to fare much better and drop from their highs in 2021.

“But Chicago’s 2024 decline in homicides still lagged most of the country. Murders fell 8%, but that was small compared to cities like Jacksonville where murder was down 48%. Other cities like New Orleans, Philly, Washington D.C. and Memphis all had drops greater than 30%. Yet others had 20%-plus drops,” the Wirepoints analysis said.