Chicago City Wire

Mayor Brandon Johnson and his allies in Chicago may see Zohran Mamdani's victory in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary as a model for their political future. However, Mamdani's win is distinct from Chicago's progressive approach, influenced by unique demographic trends and grassroots support.

Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist and state assemblyman from Queens, defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo by a 12-point margin. Despite establishment backing, Cuomo struggled due to past controversies and lack of fresh ideas. Strategist Lis Smith noted the primary was "the last gasp of the establishment" against a grassroots movement they inadvertently fueled.

Demographic changes played a crucial role. Mamdani's campaign effectively mobilized New York’s growing immigrant communities, particularly Asian and Muslim voters. Asian Americans, now over 1.5 million strong in New York City, were pivotal; Mamdani won majority-Asian precincts by 15 percentage points. The city's Muslim population also supported him significantly.

These new coalitions have replaced white ethnic voters who moved elsewhere. A similar trend is observed in Chicago where the number of Black adults declined by 14 percent between 2000 and 2020 while Black children decreased by 49 percent.

Mamdani gained support from white progressives and younger voters with his socialist solutions addressing high living costs in New York, including rent freezes and opposition to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Chicago’s Asian community comprises about eight percent of its population but lacks the numerical strength to form a coalition like Mamdani’s. Yet the lesson remains: “progressive, immigrant-led coalitions are gaining influence in America’s largest cities.”

Mamdani focused on tangible issues such as housing and economic opportunity rather than divisive cultural debates that alienate working-class voters. His populist agenda resonated strongly among renters facing economic anxiety.

Looking forward, Mamdani's ambitious proposals will face institutional checks within New York's city charter which includes robust checks and balances unlike Chicago where the mayor has more financial control without stringent oversight.

Mamdani outmaneuvered rivals through superior grassroots organizing despite lacking Democratic establishment endorsement. In contrast, Mayor Johnson received strong union support during his campaign but faces criticism for divisive rhetoric prioritizing new migrant funding over long-standing residents' needs.

Johnson’s approval ratings improved slightly due to anti-Trump rhetoric and reduced violent crime but might not secure his position amidst fiscal challenges including budget deficits potentially leading to tax hikes making Chicago less affordable.

Mamdani's victory reflects a shift within the Democratic Party towards progressive-immigrant coalitions challenging traditional establishments amid economic concerns prevalent among diverse groups. While these coalitions reshape urban politics each city has unique demographic realities affecting political outcomes emphasizing that power ultimately depends on results achieved addressing critical issues like rising living costs or unsafe neighborhoods faced by residents today.

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