Chicago City Wire

Jeffrey Carter is fed up with politicians, the press and the public.

Carter, a longtime angel investor who has served on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange board, co-founded the venture capital firm Hyde Park Angels and the financial-technology startup company West Loop Ventures and advised the Group of Seven nations — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States — on the future of work, artificial intelligence and big data.

He chose to speak out regarding these issues on his own merit to Chicago City Wire. His opinions do not necessarily reflect those of his businesses or partnerships.

He said Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Illinois’ elected officials need to wake up and step up to deal with the current situation.

“I am really disappointed in the actions of our political class. Instead of being open with data and assumptions, they are running roughshod on the population,” Carter said. “Instead of watching the changing data and changing policy to match the data, it’s become a political fight with Trump. Illinois, the city of Chicago, and all counties in Illinois had extremely large fiscal problems going back to before the Rauner administration.”

He agrees with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) who said if states cannot make their commitments during this economic downturn, they should declare bankruptcy.

“The only clear out is bankruptcy, which would be great for taxpayers, would not impact the national economy, but would have a large impact on bondholders and public union members,” Carter said.

He said federal, state and local officials have greatly overreacted to the coronavirus outbreak, which has killed more than 60,000 Americans.

“When we look at the data, this virus is highly contagious but for most of the population it is not deadly,” Carter said. “Most of the deaths in Illinois are people in nursing homes, or people with prior conditions.”

It is clear that the cost of shutting down the country has been serious and, in some cases, fatal.

“Domestic abuse is up. Child abuse is up. Suicides are up. Substance abuse is up,” Carter said. “The opportunity cost of keeping the economy closed at this point is greater than the cost of closing. Government has not laid off one employee and the state is going to follow through with a $216 million wage increase while the private sector is out of work suffering. It’s cruel.”

He is glad some Americans are making their voices heard and telling governments to ease restrictions and allow life to continue as it was before the pandemic panic.

“I think it’s great people are protesting. Civil disobedience is a cultural hallmark of the United States and everyone ought to read and understand Thoreau. I think people also ought to read Emerson’s Self-Reliance essay  and understand that government is not the great provider for you or your freedom.

“Unfortunately, civil disobedience in the U.S. has been falsely equivocated to just marching on behalf of various victim classes today,” he said. “It’s really about our rights endowed to us by a Creator, and not the government. Hence, protestors are walking against Pritzker’s totalitarian edict on behalf of all their citizens and the Bill of Rights.”

He believes it is time to open parts of the economy.

“What works in DuQuoin might not be the best policy in urban Chicago,” Carter said. “Shouldn’t local politicians who are accountable to their local voters have control over their economies? We can take temperatures and we can limit how many are in a store.

“We can trust that people will accept personal responsibility to act rationally. This means if you are sick, don’t go out,” he said. “If you have a pre-existing condition, don’t go out and take unnecessary risk. Everyone wash your hands a lot. Smile, say hello, act civil, be polite, but try and maintain some distance outside.”

There is one reason these things are not happening, Carter said.

“Bureaucrats think we are dumb,” he said.

School should be in session.

“Children are not dying nor are they at risk,” Carter said. “Most of the labor force in schools is under the age of 60.  If a person has a co-morbidity, they ought to be able to stay home with pay. No penalty.”

Carter said much of the blame lies at the feet of reporters and editors who are doing a terrible job covering news and reporting it clearly.

“It is disappointing how little the press doesn’t understand Bayesian conditional probability,” Carter said. “If they did, they would be aggressively questioning politicians.”

Named for Thomas Bayes, an 18th-century English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister, Bayesian conditional probability states that it is possible to predict an event based on conditions linked to it, as in a heavy smoker having a greater risk of lung cancer and breathing problems.

Carter said reporters should keep that in mind when covering elected officials. Events are intrinsically linked.

“Politicians do not like to be challenged in Illinois,” he said. “Unfortunately, the major part of the press regurgitates their talking points without examining or questioning.”

Carter rose to financial prominence by following his instincts and saying what he believes, based on careful study and research. It is clear that also applies to his thoughts on politics, government and the media.