Chicago City Wire

M3 Strategies’ Chief Pollster Matthew Podgorski noted his team accurately predicted incumbent Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s loss in her re-election bid.  

“Happy to report that M3 Strategies looks to have been accurate in its final poll on the Chicago mayoral race. We had Vallas at 33% and Johnson at 20%. See detailed results at this link: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qhUDc8FqZ7fk7QXAEJudXyjSBhB5Hsjkbi51TmuzB2M/edit,“ Podgorski said on Twitter.

M3 Strategies polling | M3 Strategies

With 88% of votes counted, former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas made the runoff along with Cook County commissioner for the 1st District Brandon Johnson.

Vallas had 34.9% of the vote with 164,610 votes to Johnson’s 20.2% with 96,260 votes. Lightfoot finished third with 16.6% of the vote and 78,865 votes.

The latest M3 poll had Vallas at 33.3%, Johnson at 19.7% and Lightfoot at 18.3%.

“The early election returns demonstrate the accuracy of the polling numbers we released throughout this cycle,” Podgorski said in a press release.

“By mid-January, we could see Paul Vallas’ support was solidifying and that he would likely make the runoff. At the same time, our surveys captured Garcia’s support plummeting and Johnson surging.”

The M3 strategies poll was the best-performing poll the Chicago Mayoral Election.

M3 Strategies released the bullet points below in a press on the subject.

“• M3 Strategies correctly predicted that Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson would make the runoff”

“• M3 Strategies was the first firm to show Paul Vallas leading and consistently showed the strength of his support. And the only firm to capture Vallas’ surge and show him receiving over 30% of the vote.”

“• M3 Strategies was the first firm to capture Congressman Garcia’s slide, showing his support drop by 8% points from December to January, and to capture Brandon Johnson’s surge, showing his support jump from 3% in December to 12% in January and 18% in February.”

In the final weeks of the race Lightfoot was noted to be struggling in M3’s poll. As the race neared election day a large majority of Chicago residents reported they found Lighfoot deeply disfavorable.