Chicago City Wire

A newly released analysis by the Illinois Policy Institute (IPI) shows that the number of homicides in Chicago over the past year is lower than at any time in the past decade. At the same time, arrest rates related to homicides have fallen from 42 percent to 27 percent over the past decade.

Between July 2024 and June 2025, Chicago reported 498 homicides, 120 fewer than during any 12-month period back to June 2016, wrote IPI’s Patrick Andriesen. Only 133 arrests for homicides were made.

“The drop in the share of homicides seeing a first step towards justice is troubling,” Andriesen wrote. “A decade ago, police were making arrests in more than 2-in-5 homicides. Now it is just over 1-in-4.”

CPD Chief Larry Snelling | City of Chicago

Andriesen said the police force has decreased by 2,103 officers since 2019.

“The impact is seen in police overtime, which was budgeted at $100 million in 2024, yet the total was $273.8 million as too few officers tried to cover too many shifts,” he wrote.

IPI’s Micky Horstman said the reduction in violent crime mirrors a national trend post-COVID.

“Chicago was lagging behind this trend but has seemingly caught up,” Horstman told Chicago City Wire. He added that efforts by Superintendent Snelling and Cook County State’s Attorney O’Neil-Burke, as well as violence interrupters, have contributed to reducing violent crime.

New York City reported 412 shootings during the first seven months of this year, the lowest since 1994, according to the New York Post. This contrasts with Chicago’s 498 homicides over the past 12 months. Mayor Eric Adams and Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch attributed New York’s decrease to a crackdown on gangs and guns.

“Summer is usually the toughest test for public safety, but the wins that we are celebrating today prove that under Mayor Adams’ leadership, we are not just passing the test, we are resetting the curve,” Tisch said.

Approximately 30 Chicago neighborhoods reported increases in homicides over the past 12 months. Ten neighborhoods recorded decade highs, many with single-digit increases.

“Austin was the deadliest neighborhood with 47 homicides in the past 12 months,” Andriesen reported. “It had the most homicides for eight of the past 10 years. It was followed by Garfield Park with 31 homicides and North Lawndale with 30.”

The West Side, Southwest Side, and South Side of Chicago saw the most homicides during the decade. The West Side had nearly double the homicides of any other area.

A report from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, cited by the Second City Cop blog, found that police uses of lethal force declined by 24 percent nationally from 2021 to 2023. The drop in Illinois was similar.

“Researchers with the school’s Cline Center for Advanced Social Research compiled data to track and identify the use of lethal force by officers throughout the country,” the post said. “They found that from 2021 to 2023 the number of such incidents fell by 24 percent nationally. The drop was about the same in Illinois.”