Chicago City Wire

Radio host Dan Proft is calling out Jesse Sullivan’s campaign over what he describes as a flawed poll. 

“One of the things that was circulating over the weekend was an internal poll that was released by Jesse Sullivan's campaign that shows him in a statistical dead heat with Darren Bailey,” Proft said on the June 20 broadcast of AM 560 Chicago’s Morning Answer. “So here's the thing about that. It's not an accurate poll. I'm sorry, but it's just not. Here's the thing. You don't close a 25-point gap, 20 to 25-point gap, which is the spread between Bailey and Sullivan – with Irvin in second –without some sort of exogenous event that reshuffles the race or new messaging and significant weight behind that messaging to generate reconsideration. A couple of people running around saying ‘I'm the best to beat Pritzker’ doesn't change the race, doesn't change the nature of the race, the distribution of it in any meaningful way. So it's just not credible. None of the numbers in that poll are credible."

Sullivan promoted the polling in a June 17 press release. In that communication, Sullivan’s campaign noted he was tied with Bailey at 27%. The internal poll was produced by Remington Research Group which was hired by the Sullivan campaign.

Proft cited a poll by Remington in the Ohio Senate race which had made a bad call.

Proft said the poll showed Josh Mandel ahead of fellow candidate J.D. Vance who was in fourth place, according to Politico. Vance won the race handily with over 32.2% of the vote to Mandel’s 23.9%.

Proft applauded two pollsters.

 "A note to political journalists, the best pollster in the race was Tony Fabrizio. Maybe in the future, don't treat garbage polls from Remington the same as Tony's because they're both, quote unquote, internal." 

“The best independent pollster was Robert Cahaly," Proft said. "That's Trafalgar. Kudos to both. Tony Fabrizio is my pollster, as well. Robert Cahaly Trafalgar, we reported the poll, the independent poll that he did last week that had Bailey up 37 to 20 (Irvin) with Sullivan at 12. I think that's my point about the spread, and you don't close that kind of spread without doing a lot of massaging both directions to pull down the frontrunner as well as to elevate yourself. And that just hasn't happened.”

Sullivan’s numbers were far different than those in the Chicago Sun-Times/WBEZ poll that showed Bailey has seized a sizable lead. According to that poll, 32% of likely primary voters said they would for Bailey, compared to 17% for Irvin. The only other candidate to receive double-digit support was Sullivan, who received 11%. Businessman Gary Rabine scored 6%, followed by former state senator Paul Schimpf with 4% and Max Solomon with 2%, WGLT reported.

Remington Research Group bills itself as a “nationally acclaimed polling firm.” “All surveys from Remington Research Group include a screening question at the beginning to ensure we are only speaking with likely voters. Self-identified demographic questions are also included to ensure we are weighting the interviews correctly post-interview,” the group’s website reads.