Chicago City Wire

Political consultant David Axelrod has predicted the Chicago Mayor’s race will come down to former CEO for Chicago Public Schools Paul Vallas and Cook County commissioner for the 1st District Brandon Johnson.

He said incumbent Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is unlikely to make the runoff.

“She definitely has a very, very steep uphill climb,” Axelrod told the Chicago Sun-Times. “She spent a fair amount of her money trying to take Chuy Garcia down — I think, on the theory that Vallas would be an easier candidate to beat” in the runoff. If she doesn’t make the runoff … that [wasn’t] money well-spent.” 

Axelrod called Vallas’s campaign “brilliant” and “disciplined.” He said Johnson is the CTU’s candidate. 

“He is the candidate of the Chicago Teachers Union and, if he is elected, he will owe it to the Chicago Teachers Union. … The question is, do you want a mayor who is entirely beholden to the union,” Axelrod said. 

The CNN analyst remarked Johnson has a “big personality.” 

“Big personalities are an advantage. ... He’ll get more attention if he gets one of the seats because he’ll have started off as kind of an unknown and he’ll have scaled the heights to get into the finals and he’ll be treated, initially, as the story,” Axelrod said. “It’s not gonna be a story that Vallas made the runoff. But, it will be a story if Johnson does. He will be propelled by that. He will get a lot of attention and he’s a good performer. That’s all to his advantage. He also will get more scrutiny and it will be a very interesting battle about the direction Chicago wants to go.” 

He added Vallas’s support from the Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) is important to his success. Vallas has boasted that he pitched in to help secure the FOP’s officers’ contracts. “The payoff is coming now: the fact that the union is mobilized on his behalf,” Axelrod said. Apart from being a CNN analyst, the 68-year-old Axelrod currently serves as the director of the University of Chicago’s Institute of Politics, which he founded. He was Senior Advisor to President Barack Obama. He was instrumental in the election of Harold Washington, Chicago’s first black mayor. He also served under Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley. 

Candidates for office include Lightfoot, Vallas, Johnson, U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-IL), businessman Willie Wilson, 26th District State Rep. Kam Buckner (D-Chicago), Obama-backed 4th Ward Alderman Sophia King, 6th Ward Alderman Roderick Sawyer, and BLM-protestor Ja’Mal Green, according to Axios Chicago.

Lightfoot, the incumbent, is struggling in polls of Chicago residents many of whom find her deeply unfavorable. M3 Strategies recently released a poll finding Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is a longshot to re-win the job she’s held for the past two years. The survey included 531 likely Chicago voters. Its margin of error is 4.25%. The poll’s key findings include: 

• If the election were held today, Paul Vallas (26%) and García (19%) would make the runoff. However, 20% of voters are still undecided. 

• Mayor Lightfoot comes in fourth place with 10%. This poll shows the Mayor's support slipping despite spending over $3 million last quarter. Our December 13th poll showed Mayor Lightfoot with 14.5%. 

• Support for Jesús García has dropped. He came in at 27.6% in a December poll. 

• Paul Vallas saw his support grow to 26% in January, up from 19% in December. 

• Commissioner Brandon Johnson is building support. He comes in third place in this poll with 12%, up from 3% in December.”

Garcia was referenced in the public corruption case against former house speaker Michael Madigan who schemed to get one of Garcia’s political associates – Juan Ochoa – a lucrative job on the state utility board. While Garcia is not named, his longtime affiliation with Madigan is well known. 

“García’s name surfacing — even superficially — in one of the biggest political corruption investigations in Illinois history could make waves in the upcoming city election, where García is running as a progressive and is widely considered to be the strongest challenger in a crowded field seeking to unseat Mayor Lori Lightfoot,” the Chicago Tribune reported.